UAE fuel prices

The UAE Fuel Price Committee sets pump prices once a month from international spot prices for refined petrol and diesel, plus distribution costs and 5% VAT. Testing on every decision since March 2021 shows the committee averages benchmark prices from about the 28th of one month to the 28th of the next, then announces on the last day of the month.

The forecast takes the change in that benchmark average, passes about nine-tenths of it through, and nudges the price back toward its usual margin over the benchmark. Diesel also carries over part of last month's move, because the committee tends to spread large jumps across two months. Super 98 and E-Plus 91 keep their current gap to Special 95.

The benchmark here is New York Harbor spot prices from the US Energy Information Administration, a free stand-in for the Gulf assessments the committee uses. That gap is the main source of error, especially when Gulf supply is disrupted. The range under each forecast covers 80% of the model's past misses.

Not financial advice. Official prices are published by the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure and carried by WAM.