UAE fuel prices
| Grade | Change |
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What a full tank costs: the Batrol vs your car
Fill the Batrol abroad
How past forecasts compared
Price history: forecast vs actual
Special 95, past 18 months. Predicted is the change expected a month before the official announcement.
| Month | Price | Actual | Predicted | Miss |
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How the forecast works
The UAE Fuel Price Committee sets pump prices once a month from international spot prices for refined petrol and diesel, plus distribution costs and 5% VAT. Testing on every decision since March 2021 shows the committee averages benchmark prices from about the 28th of one month to the 28th of the next, then announces on the last day of the month.
For petrol, the forecast splits the benchmark into crude oil (Brent) and the refining margin on top of it, because the two can move apart, and weighs recent months more heavily. It then nudges the price back toward its usual margin. Diesel carries over part of last month's move, because the committee tends to spread large jumps across two months. Super 98 and E-Plus 91 keep their current gap to Special 95.
The benchmarks here are New York Harbor and Brent spot prices from the US Energy Information Administration, a free stand-in for the Gulf assessments the committee uses. That gap is the main source of error, especially when Gulf supply is disrupted. The range under each forecast covers 80% of the model's past misses.
Not financial advice. Official prices are published by the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure and carried by WAM.